Abstract:The scientific characters, foe objects, the methods and the applied prospect of the Weather Probability Prediction are introduced. It also indicated that the Weather Probability Prediction is not only the development of the weather prediction technology in China but also an important method adapting to social requirements and to the improvement of the economic benefit.

Abstract:The dynamic tracking of onroute ship,overlapping their routes against relevant meteorological and sea backgrounds on the computer screen was developed.

Abstract:The land surface temperature of the Ordos Plateau and the surrounding areas is calculated with NOAA-AVHRR data by means of a split-window method. In this method,the surface emissivity is computed first from the brightness temperature of Channels 3,4 and 5,then in conjunction with the emissivity and the brightness temperature of Channels 4 and 5 the land surface temperature is derived. The comparison between the computed results and the observations of local stations at about the same time indicates that the difference is about 80% within 1℃ in the nighttime,but only 67% in the daytime. The maximum difference is - 3.8 C. As a macro-monitoring measure, this method is acceptable in estimating land surface temperature.

Abstract:Based on quasi-geostrophic Q-vector theory,a case of continuous heavy rain has been analyzed. Q-vector, vorticity and divergence of Q, geostrophic frontogenesis function have been computed in 13 times of the heavy rain case. Results show that the internal mechanics of the heavyrain is a contrary movement of warm and cold air mass with clockwise and spiral lift movement.Further more, the forecast method of heavy rain area with Q-vector field in operational forecast practice is indicated.

Abstract:The total precipitation data of 129 representative stations during June to August from 1959 to 1989 in 5 northwestern provinces of China, was resolved by EOF method.The summer precipitation fields was divided into 5 patterns of space distribution.The teleconnection and typical field of the time coefficient and simultaneous Eurasian 500hpa latitudinal deviation field have been compared. The features of circulation field corresponding to the summer precipitation patterns are given in northwestern of China.

Abstract:The technique and implemental technics used in the database of T63 operational system has been introducted

Abstract:The regression equation based on close correlation between cloud system construction (eye,CDO, spiral clouds hand, structure tightness ) and tropical cyclone intensity with 2446 S-VISSR data samples were achieved. Then the technique was exerted on computer by an interactive way.The satisfied results were obtained by operational practice. The method is an objective one.

Abstract:A mesoscale convective system(MCS)influenced Hunan Province during 11, 0900 -12, 1000 UTC June 1994 has been studied by the use of the scale separated kinetic energy. Results showed that (1 ) the kinetic energy generated by the ageostrophic flow in large scale motion field and by the interaction between the flow and pressure fields of the large-and meso-scale motions is the dominant source of energy; (2) the kinetic energy of the mesoscale motion and of the interaction between large-and meso-scale flow fields increases (decreases) with the MCS's development (fading);(3) the total kinetic energy of upper troposphere drastically reduced during the MCS's development phase.

Abstract:The inter-monthly sea ice variation in the Southern oceans has been studied by the use of the area index data of sea ice from 1973 to 1986. The results show that: (1) the inter-monthly variation pattern of sea ice area in the latitude belt of 50°-79. 75°S is similar to that of 60°-69. 75°S; (2) in certain longitudes,this variation shows a tendency of Eastward (or west ward) propagation; (3) in general, the maximum and minimum of sea ice area appear in February and September respectively. But in certain longitudes, the months occurred extreme values can move up or delay.

Abstract:The relationship between arctic tropopause height and surface air temperature is discussed by using the aerological sounding and surface data during 1977-1990 in Beijing area. The relationship is a better positive correlation. However, when their wave troughes appear in different months,the annual relative variability of precipitation is much more than the mean relative variability of precipitation during the same period.

Abstract:A dynamical interpretation system of severe convective weather consisting with principle of Guo Xiao lan's convective parameterization is built. Analysis and application of severe convective events show that dynamical interpretation technique has obviously increased the capability of objective forecasting of severe convective weather.

Abstract:A analysis of the practically crushing stage and the sucrose content data in the crushing season in thirteen sugar mills in Guangxi Province,suggests that most of the arrangments of crushing stage are not rational. According to the sucrose contents accumulated and simulations, a mode is developed. Researches on forecasts of the optimum crushing stage and the high sugar stage in the production of cane sugar, have been systematically conducted.