ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
Technique for Extrapolating and Correcting Short-Time Heavy Precipitation Based on the Evolution Characteristics of Thunderstorms
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Sichuan Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072; Sichuan Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateaus and Basins, Chengdu 610213; Wuhan Meteorological Bureau, Wuhan 430040; Wuhan East Lake High-Tech Development Zone Meteorological Station, Wuhan 430205; Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081; Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology, CMA, Chengdu 610213

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    Abstract:

    To address the issue that existing radar-based precipitation extrapolation techniques can not adequately characterize the evolution of thunderstorms and cause systematic biases in heavy precipitation forecasts, this paper proposes a heavy precipitation extrapolation and correction method which integrates the evolution features of thunderstorms. Based on the storm cell identification and tracking (SCIT) algorithm, a thunderstorm development trend discrimination model is constructed for different thunderstorms by combining key factors including strong gradient zones, newly generated cells, and echo area changes. By utilizing radar reflectivity factor, optical flow vectors and dynamic Z-I relationship, we implement evolutionary constraints and corrections during the extrapolating process of heavy precipitation. Verification on the precipitation forecasts in the main flood season of 2025 shows that in the 0-1 h forecasts, the TS scores of the corrected products at the level of ≥20 mm·h-1 and ≥50 mm·h-1 are both higher than those of the optical flow system, with the advantage increasing with precipitation intensity. In the 1-2 h forecasts, the TS scores at ≥20 mm·h-1 and ≥50 mm·h-1 are still significantly improved compared with those of the optical system, but the score at ≥50 mm·h-1 is only 0.004, indicating very limited operational guidance value. Further analysis of typical cases of heavy precipitation demonstrates that the correction technique can capture precipitation characteristics of convective systems rapidly moving and developing to a greater extent and effectively alleviate the problems of underestimating intensity and coverage that exist inherently in traditional extrapolation methods.

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History
  • Received:November 03,2025
  • Revised:July 08,2026
  • Adopted:
  • Online: September 28,2026
  • Published:
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