ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 52 Issue 5 > 2026,52(5):513-526. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2026.030501 Prev Next
Performance Evaluation on Operational Application of the AI-Based Global Short- and Medium-Range Forecasting System—Fengqing Model
- Article
- Figures
- Metrics
- Preview PDF
- Reference
- Related
- Cited by
- Materials
Abstract:
In 2024, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), in collaboration with Tsinghua University, developed the forecasting model following an innovative “AI-Physics” hybrid approach—Fengqing Model. With the designs such as a multi-scale latent space projection architecture and an energy-conservation loss function, the model has been equipped with global short- and medium-range weather forecasting capabilities and has been applied in forecasting operations. This paper comprehensively evaluates the forecasting ability of Fengqing Model in China and the surrounding areas in 2024 from several metrics such as forecasting accuracy and bias distribution. Two kinds of typical synoptic processes, i.e., typhoon and rainstorm, are also focused on deeply exploring the model’s performance in the forecasts of disastrous weather. The results show that the 500 hPa geopotential height forecasts by Fengqing Model maintain a predictive skill beyond 10 days. The root mean square errors of 2 m temperature and 850 hPa temperature are significantly lower than those from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF-IFS), having a maximum improvement of 37.66%. In terms of typical weather processes, Fengqing Model demonstrates its superior performance in typhoon track forecasting to ECMWF-IFS, but it underestesmates the typhoon intensity. In addition, Fengqing Model has a good forecasting ability for rainstorm, with smaller forecast errors for the locations of typhoon rain and Meiyu front rainfall belt. The TS score of rainstorm forecasts in the medium-range (73-168 h lead time) is improved by 43.53% compared to that of ECMWF-IFS forecasts. Overall, the Fengqing Model presents considerable potential in operational forecasting, although further improvements are needed in activity level and typhoon intensity prediction at medium- and long-range lead times.
Keywords:
Project Supported:
Clc Number:
Mobile website
