ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Verification on Typhoon Forecasts over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2025
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Abstract:
According to the “Regulations on Typhoon Operations and Services” (China Meteorological Administration, 2024), this study verified the accuracy of operational position and intensity estimation, as well as accuracy of track and intensity forecasts for the typhoons over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2025. The mean error of typhoon position estimation by the National Meteorological Centre (NMC) was 13.5 ?km, and the mean absolute error (MAE) of typhoon intensity estimation was 1.1? m/s. The position and intensity estimation accuracies by the NMC were superior to those of other official typhoon forecasting agencies, including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The mean track forecast errors by the NMC at 24?h and 48?h were 56.6? km and 95.8 ?km, respectively, and the MAE of intensity forecast at 24?h and 48?h were 3.6 ?m/s and 4.9? m/s, respectively. The track and intensity forecast performance of NMC at 24?h and 48?h reached the highest level on record. For AI-based Weather Prediction (AIWP) models, the 95th percentile track forecast errors were generally larger than those of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models at short lead times, but smaller than those of NWP models at long lead times. Correcting the intensity forecasts of AIWP models with an adaptation model reduced the underestimation of typhoon intensity, thereby improving the accuracy of typhoon intensity forecasts.
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