ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 52 Issue 2 > 2026,52(2):231-246. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2026.011601 Prev Next
Climate Prediction Performance for the 2025 Flood Season and Dynamical-Statistical Fusion Predicting Technique
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Abstract:
The National Climate Centre has made accurate predictions for the flood season in 2025, that is, the principal rain belt in central and eastern China would mainly dwell over the northern regions during the summer months (June to August), with below-normal precipitation in the part south of the Yangtze River. The predictions regarding the monsoon behavior and the progression of rainy season aligned closely with observations. Notably, the prediction correctly indicates an earlier onset, extended duration, exceptionally heavy rainfall during the rainy season in North China, and the relatively severe flooding in the Haihe River Basin and the middle-lower reaches of Yellow River Basin. However, certain shortcomings still existed in the summer precipitation prediction. Firstly, the extremity of precipitation in the northern part of North China was underestimated. Secondly, the precipitation prediction for the Huaihe River Basin deviated from observations. In the updated midsummer (July to August) prediction issued in June 2025, precipitation in central and eastern China was predicted to follow an “above normal over both North and South China, below normal over the Yangtze River Basin” pattern. This prediction anticipated a westward expansion and northward contraction of the primary rain belt in northern China and a northward and westward extension of the secondary rain belt in South China. It also highlighted a reduction of precipitation in the Yangtze River and Huaihe River (Jianghuai) basins and emphasized the likelihood of anomalous conditions at the same time, which was proved to match with the observations. In March 2025, the flood season prediction was made based on objective methods including dynamical models and multi-model ensembles, etc. The application of these methods was guided by evaluating their predictive skills over the past decade. Meanwhile, the combined influence of multiple precursor signals at interdecadal and interannual scales on the East Asian summer monsoon and summer precipitation in China was comprehensively considered and analyzed. As a result, the prediction of the intensified East Asian summer monsoon and the primary rain belt located over northern China in 2025 was successfully worked out. For the midsummer precipitation prediction, the influence of spring Eurasian snow cover was additionally incorporated. In addition to the above analyses, key scientific and technical challenges in flood season prediction are discussed in this paper, along with potential directions for our future efforts.
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