ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Analysis of Climate Features over China and the Possible Causes of Flood in Northern China in Autumn 2025
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Abstract:
Based on observations from 2374 meteorological stations in China and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset, the spatiotemporal characteristics and causes of climate anomalies over China during autumn 2025 have been analyzed. The autumn of 2025 was generally warmer than normal across China, with the northern region exhibiting an intraseasonal “warm-cold-warm” temperature variation and the southern region showing a “warm in the early stage and cold in the late stage” pattern. The national average precipitation was the highest since 1961 for the same period, with an uneven spatiotemporal distribution. In the early autumn, large-scale excessive precipitation with prominent extremeness occurred in southern North China, northern East China, northern Central China, and eastern Northwest China, leading to severe autumn flood. The autumn rain in West China started early, ended late, had a long duration, and recorded the highest rainfall in history. The formation of autumn flood in northern China was closely related to East Asian atmospheric circulation anomalies. The abnormally strong Western North Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) with an extremely northward ridge line, coupled with a robust low-level anticyclone over the Yellow Sea, provided favorable water vapor transport conditions, serving as the basic circulation background for the autumn flood in northern China. Additionally, the extreme meridional stability of the WPSH (i.e., little north-south movement) was another key circulation feature contributing to the flood. Furthermore, during the autumn, the equatorial central-eastern Pacific was in a developmental stage from cold water conditions to La Ni?a, accompanied by an extreme negative phase of the tropical Indian Ocean dipole (TIOD). Both factors, through pathways such as atmospheric teleconnections and local meridional-zonal circulation coupling, worked synergistically to influence the anomalous configuration of the East Asian circulation, serving as an important oceanic external forcing background for the autumn flood in northern China.
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Project Supported:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (42505041, 42475019, 41975088), the Joint Funds of the NSFC (U2242206, U2442206), the National Key R&D Program of China (2024YFF0809204)
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