ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 51 Issue 12 > 2025,51(12):1669-1682. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2025.090101 Prev Next
Evaluation of Typhoon Forecast Accuracy in the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea in 2023
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Abstract:
Errors of typhoon operational position and intensity estimation, as well as errors of typhoon track and intensity forecast over the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea in 2023 are evaluated. The results show that the mean error of typhoon position estimation by official typhoon forecasting agencies in 2023 was 17.1 km, and the mean error of typhoon intensity estimation was 2.8 m·s-1. Compared to the errors in 2022, the accuracy of typhoon position estimation got improved in 2023, whereas the accuracy of typhoon intensity estimation decreased. The mean errors of track forecasts with 24， 48 and 72 h lead time by subjective and objective forecast methods in 2023 were reduced than in 2022. In 2023, the mean errors of 24 h track forecast by the official typhoon forecasting agencies reached a historic low. Among objective forecasts, mean errors of track forecasts by ECMWF-IFS, NCEP-GFS, CMA-TRAMS were relatively small. Mean absolute errors of typhoon intensity forecasts by NCEP-GFS, CMA-TYM and ANNGA were generally small, and their intensity forecast skill scores were relatively high.
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