ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Climate Prediction Performance for the 2025 Flood Season and Summary of Dynamical–Statistical Fusion Forecasting Techniques
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Abstract:
During the 2025 flood season, the National Climate Centre accurately forecasted that the principal rain belt in central and eastern China would be situated over the northern regions during the summer months (June to August), with below-normal precipitation in the south. The predictions regarding monsoon behavior and the progression of the rainy season aligned closely with actual observations. Notably, the forecasts correctly indicated an earlier onset, extended duration, and exceptionally heavy rainfall during the rainy season in North China, as well as severe flooding in the Haihe River Basin and the middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River. However, certain limitations were observed in the summer precipitation forecasts. Firstly, the extremity of precipitation in northern North China was underestimated. Secondly, the forecast for the Huaihe River Basin deviated from observations. In the updated midsummer (July toAugust) forecast issued in June, precipitation in central and eastern China was projected to follow a “above normal over both North and South China, below normal over the Yangtze River basin” pattern. This forecast anticipated a westward expansion and northward contraction of the primary northern rain belt, along with a northward and westward extension of the secondary rain belt in South China. It also highlighted reduced precipitation in the Jianghuai River Basin and emphasized the likelihood of anomalous conditions, which proved more consistent with actual observations. In March 2025, the flood season forecast was developed based on objective methods including dynamical models and multi-model ensembles, etc. The application of these methods was guided by evaluating their predictive skill over the past decade. The forecast comprehensively considered the combined influences of multiple precursor signals across interdecadal and interannual scales on the East Asian summer monsoon and summer precipitation in China. This approach successfully predicted an intensified East Asian summer monsoon and a primary rainfall belt located over northern China in 2025. For the midsummer precipitation forecast, the influence of spring Eurasian snow cover was additionally incorporated. Finally, key scientific and technical challenges in flood season prediction were discussed.
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