ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 51 Issue 12 > 2025,51(12):1656-1668. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2025.091901 Prev Next
Meteorological Prediction of Dissolved Oxygen in Summer in Fishponds Based on RF-SVR Model
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Abstract:
Summer is a critical period for fishery production. Fishpond water has high temperature and low saturated dissolved oxygen, while aquatic organisms have vigorous metabolism and high oxygen consumption, so often leading to oxygen deficiency and economic losses. Dissolved oxygen monitoring equipment is limited by pond water quality, making it difficult to ensure monitoring accuracy. Research on meteorological prediction models for dissolved oxygen in summer aquaculture water can offer references for regulating dissolved oxygen, warning fishpond suffocation risks and integrating intelligent oxygenation systems, and can also offer solutions for improving fishpond water quality monitoring accuracy. Based on in-situ monitored dissolved oxygen and water temperature data in different layers of freshwater in fishponds and observed meteorological data from meteorological stations in Jianghan Plain, the spatio-temporal variation of layered dissolved oxygen in summer is analyzed. A real-time prediction model for dissolved oxygen based onmeteorological factors is established using the RF-SVR method and is compared with other models. The results show that the variation characteristics of dissolved oxygen in different layers are significant in sunny and hot weather in summer, that is, the dissolved oxygen starts to rise at 07:00-08:00 BT, decreases vertically with water depth, peaks at 17:00-20:00 BT, and then begins to decrease, with values in different layers getting close to each other gradually, and its lowest level appears at 03:00-08:00 BT. Under severe cooling and low-light conditions, pond dissolved oxygen rapidly drops to below 2 mg·L-1 and maintains a low-oxygen environment. Partial dependence analysis indicates that summer solar radiation exposure, sea-level pressure and maximum temperature are the main limiting factors for dissolved oxygen changes in aquaculture ponds and have a significant lag effect. The values of MAE, NSE, R2 and RMSE of meteorological prediction model for dissolved oxygen based on RF-SVR are 0.50 mg·L-1, 0.63, 0.77 and 0.66 mg·L-1 respectively, showing better simulation accuracy and smaller errors than those of other seven models and being more suitable for summer dissolved oxygen prediction.
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