ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 51 Issue 12 > 2025,51(12):1608-1620. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2025.060602 Prev Next
Analysis on the Characteristics and Forecast Difficulties of Typhoons in the Northwest Pacific in 2024
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Abstract:
Utilizing the best track data of tropical cyclones from China Meteorological Administration (CMA) in 1949-2024, observed data of typhoon track and intensity from National Meteorological Centre (NMC) in 2024, and ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), this paper analyzes the main characteristics of typhoon activities over the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea in 2024. The results indicate that the number of generated typhoons and average maximum intensity in typhoon lifespan approximated climatological mean, with their average birth locations by north and by west. The landfall typhoon count surpassed the climatological mean with enhanced intensity and concentrated impact areas. The autumn typhoon activities significantly exceeded climatological mean. Notable inland movement of the typhoons caused extensive heavy precipitation processes. The NMC demonstrated superior track forecasting capability compared to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), while the typhoon intensity prediction errors by NMC exceeded that of JMA but was lower than that of JTWC. Key challenging issues in the operational forecasting include that, firstly, significant track forecast errors arose from numerical models’ limited capability in catching the complex structural evolution of typhoons after their landfall and their interactions with steering flows, which makes the correction to such processes highly challenging. Then, forecasting the persistence of typhoon remnant vortices over land and their associated precipitation impacts is the second challenging issue, and the third difficulty is predicting the rapid intensification (RI) of Typhoon Yagi and the prolonged maintenance of super typhoon.
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