ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 51 Issue 11 > 2025,51(11):1417-1432. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2025.032401 Prev Next
Review and Outlook on Challenges in Meteorological Service for Major Events
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Abstract:
This paper reviews the meteorological service work for major events in China over the past two decades, categorizing it into three types: conventional “fixed-time and fixed-location” forecast, special “fixed-time and fixed-location” forecast, and special forecast for major overseas event. It explores the difficulties and challenges in providing forecasting services for different types of meteorological service needs, and provides prospects for future meteorological service and its forecasting support system for major events. The main conclusions are as follows. In conventional “fixed-time and fixed-location” weather element forecasting scenarios, the forecast challenges primarily focus on convection generation and dissipation or the occurrence of weak precipitation. Over short-term periods, the weather situation forecast provided by numerical models remains an important basis for decision-making, and the service from high-resolution numerical model products is indispensable. However, in short-time forecasting or nowcasting, the observation data and the comprehensive analytical capabilities of forecasters are more important. Due to inadequate observational coverage, limited forecast capabilities of numerical models and the lack of targeted objective forecast methods, in special “fixed-time and fixed-location” forecast scenarios involving clouds, localized winds, and localized visibility, the experience of forecasters, combined with observations and weather situation analysis, is crucial for successful service, especially in overseas on-site service support, regardless of whether it is short-time or nowcasting. With the increased observational system coverage, the improved accurate forecast capabilities of numerical models, and the development of targeted objective forecast methods including AI, the special element forecasting scenarios will gradually transition into conventional element forecast scenarios, and the leading role of the forecasting team will also gradually shift to short-time forecasting or nowcasting. To meet the meteorological service needs for various major events in the future, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of a three-dimensional full-element observation system, enhance the accurate forecasting capabilities of numerical models, promote the development of targeted objective forecasting technologies, and build a forecasting team with continuous self-learning, high generalization abilities, and strong communication skills.
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