ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
基于分布式水文模型的潮白河流域“25·7”洪水模拟
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Abstract:
In late July 2025, Chaobai River Basin experienced the largest flood since 1959. A flood simulation and forecasting model is developed for Chaobai River Basin based on a distributed hydrological model, aiming to retrospectively analyze the characteristics of the basin’s "25·7" regional flood in this paper. The Zhangjiafen cross section of the Bai River, the Xiahui cross section of the Chao River, and the Putaoyuan cross section of the Qingshui River were taken for test hydrological sections. Flood simulation and forecasting model based on the GMKHM distributed hydrological model was developed with taking hourly precipitation observation data from CMA regional meteorological stations as model forcing input, incorporating terrain curve numbers and terrain indices to develop a DEM-based runoff and production model, adding a deep groundwater module in the water source separation module. Results show that the peak discharge simulation errors is -1.8% for the Zhangjiafen hydrological section, 3.6% for the Xiahui hydrological section. The model determination coefficient is 0.87 for the Zhangjiafen hydrological section, and 0.89 for the Xiahui hydrological section. for the Putaoyuan section of the Qingshui River, the peak discharge error was 0.9%, and the determination coefficient reached 0.92. GMKHM distributed hydrological model perform well for simulation of "25·7" Flood events in the Chaobai Basin.
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科技部国家基础研究发展规划项目,
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