ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 51 Issue 9 > 2025,51(9):1046-1060. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2025.041802 Prev Next
Comparative Evaluation of CMA-CPEPS and CMA-REPS for Precipitation Forecasts over China During the 2023 Flood Season
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Abstract:
Based on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Convection-Permitting Ensemble Prediction System (CMA-CPEPS) and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (CMA-REPS), the precipitation forecast performance during the 2023 flood season (from 15 June to 28 August) in China, and a case analysis of the July 2023 extremely severe torrential rain in North China are objectively evaluated. The results indicate that CMA-REPS has the problem of systematically overestimating precipitation, but CMA-CPEPS can significantly overcome this problem. Relative to CMA-REPS, CMA-CPEPS shows the obvious superiority in prediction capacity for clear and rainy weather changes and its temporal changes, with a better probability forecasting and resolution ability for precipitation. Both CMA-CPEPS and CMA-REPS exhibit low spread values, while the spread/RMSE (root mean square error) value and the spatial correlation between spread and RMSE of CMA-CPEPS and CMA-REPS are equivalent. In the July 2023 extremely severe torrential rain in North China, CMA-CPEPS has a better ability to capture precipitation details compared to CMA-REPS. CMA-CPEPS outperforms CMA-REPS in forecasting precipitation intensity, evolution trend of precipitation intensity, and spatio-temporal resolution of heavy precipitation, especially in short-duration heavy precipitation events. Overall, CMA-CPEPS has a significantly enhancement over CMA-REPS in precipitation forecasting for the 2023 flood season in China.
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