ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Numerical Simulation Study on the Influence of Sea Surface Temperature on the Precipitation Intensity of a Landfalling Convective Storm
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Abstract:
This study conducts a high-resolution numerical simulation and sensitivity experiments on a typical case of landfalling convective storm (8 August 2022), by increasing and decreasing the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, the impacts of SST variation on the intensity of landfalling convective precipitation are investigated. The results show that, compared with the control experiment, increased SST can enhance the intensity of landfalling convective precipitation. Specifically, when SST increases by 1°C (2°C), the average accumulated precipitation over coastal areas rises by 2.6 mm (15.7 mm) and the maximum precipitation increases by 38.2 mm (53.7 mm). When SST decreases by 1°C (2°C), the corresponding precipitation reduces by 3.7 mm (8.3 mm), while the maximum precipitation shows no significant change. Mechanism analysis indicates that, relative to the control experiment, a 2°C SST rise significantly strengthens the coastal boundary layer temperature gradient, wind convergence lifting, as well as the intensity of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and southward-moving cold pools, leading to pronounced reinforcement of the front zone at the cold pool leading edge and dynamic lifting. In contrast, a 1°C SST increase does not evidently enhance boundary layer wind convergence and southward-moving cold pool intensity, resulting in weaker enhancement of the front zone and dynamic lifting compared with the 2°C SST increase. When SST decreases by 1°C and 2°C, the mesoscale environmental conditions and southward-moving cold pool intensity weaken substantially. The front zone at the cold pool leading edge becomes indistinct, and dynamic lifting is greatly weakened or even transformed into downdrafts, ultimately reducing the intensity of landfalling convective precipitation. The conclusions of this paper can provide a theoretical references for the intensity forecasting of landfalling convective precipitation.
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