ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Verification on Typhoons Forecasts over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2023
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Abstract:
Errors of typhoon operational position and intensity estimation, as well as errors of typhoon track and intensity forecast over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2023 are evaluated. The results show that the mean error of typhoon position estimation by official typhoon forecasting agencies in 2023 was 17.1 km, and the mean error of typhoon intensity estimation was 2.8 m/s. Compared to 2022, the accuracy of typhoon position estimation has improved in 2023, whereas the accuracy of typhoon intensity estimation has decreased. Relative to 2022, mean errors of track forecast at 24～72 h by subjective and objective forecasts in 2023 were reduced. In 2023, the mean errors of track forecast at 24 h by the official typhoon forecasting agencies reached a historic low. The landfall point forecast errors at 24 h lead time for Super Typhoon 2309 ‘Saola’ which made landfall in Yangjiang, Guangdong Province were generally large. Among objective forecasts, mean errors of track forecast by ECMWF-IFS, NCEP-GFS, CMA-TRAMS were relatively small. Mean absolute errors of intensity forecast by NCEP-GFS and CMA-TYM were generally small, and their intensity forecast skill scores were relatively high.
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