ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Analysis of the Characteristics and Forecast Difficulties of Typhoon over the Western North Pacific in 2024
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Abstract:
Utilizing the best track data of tropical cyclones from China Meteorological Administration (CMA) (1949-2024), real-time operational data of typhoon tracks and intensity from National Meteorological Center (NMC) (2024), and 6-hourly ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), this study analyzes the main characteristics of typhoon activity over the Western North Pacific and South China Sea in 2024. Results indicate that the number of generated typhoons and average maximum intensity in typhoon lifespan approximated climatological norms, with average genesis locations shifting northwestward. The landfall typhoon count is above the climatological mean with enhanced intensity and concentrated impact zones. Autumn typhoon activity significantly exceeds climatological mean. Notable inland penetration caused extensive heavy precipitation impacts. The NMC demonstrated superior track forecasting compared to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), while intensity prediction errors exceeded those of JMA but remained lower than JTWC. Key challenging issues in operational forecasting include:(1) Significant track forecast errors arise from numerical models" limited capability in resolving the complex structural evolution of typhoons after landfall and their interactions with steering flows, making corrections to such processes highly challenging;(2) Forecasting the persistence of typhoon remnant vortices over land and their associated precipitation impacts;(3) Predicting the rapid intensification (RI) of Typhoon Yagi and the prolonged maintenance of super typhoon intensity.
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