ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 51 Issue 3 > 2025,51(3):369-381. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2024.122701 Prev Next
Analysis of the Characteristics and Forecast Difficulties of Typhoon Activities in the Western North Pacific in 2023
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Abstract:
Using the best track data of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) from 1949 to 2023, real-time operational forecast data of typhoon track and intensity in 2023 from National Meteorological Centre (NMC) of CMA, and the ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we analyze the main characteristics of typhoon activities in the Western North Pacific in 2023. The results show that in 2023, the numbers of generated typhoons and the landfall typhoons were both at a relatively low level, but the extreme intensity of typhoons and landfall intensities were stronger. The generation source areas of typhoons shifted eastward, with fewer typhoons born in the South China Sea and fewer typhoons making landfall in summer. The landfall localities of typhoons were more concentrated, and the landfall typhoons travelled further inland, causing widespread and severe damages. Although the 24 h typhoon track forecast errors by NMC in 2023 reached a historic low point, the track forecast errors within 1-4 d were higher than those of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The intensity forecast errors for typhoons within 1-5 d lead time increased compared to last five years’ levels, but still better than JMA and worse than JTWC. The large challenges in typhoon forecasting in 2023 lay in the inland penetration and prolonged duration of Typhoon Doksuri which brought extreme precipitation in North China, and the remnant vortex of Typhoon Haikui triggering extreme precipitation in South China. Analysis of Typhoon Khanun indicates that, the evolution of large-scale tropical weather systems and the dual-typhoon effect may lead to the two sharp turns of the typhoon’s track.
Keywords:
typhoon, activity characteristic, forecast difficulty, remnant vortex, twist and turn in typhoon track, extreme precipitation
Clc Number:
P456
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