ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 51 Issue 3 > 2025,51(3):324-336. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2024.120902 Prev Next
Accuracy Evaluation of the Areal Rainfall Forecasts for Reservoir Basin in Zhejiang Province Based on Objective Consensus of Multi-Model Forecasts
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Abstract:
Based on the 2019-2023 grid rainfall observation and multi-model forecasts in Zhejiang Province during the flood season from May to October, the accuracy of the areal rainfall forecasts for 32 large-sized reservoirs within the basin of Zhejiang Province by multi-model objective consensus forecasting (OCF) is evaluated by means of various indicators and methods, and the results are further compared with those of the model of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (EC model). The results demonstrate that the forecast accuracy of areal rainfall by OCF model is related to the catchment area of reservoir, the location of reservoir and the synoptic processes bringing precipitation. On the whole, the forecast accuracy of areal rainfall by OCF model for Type Ⅰ large-sized reservoirs is higher than that for Type Ⅱ. The forecast error of OCF model mainly comes from the missing alarm. By reducing the missing alarm rate, the forecast accuracy of areal rainfall by OCF model for Type Ⅱ large-sized reservoirs located in eastern part of the Central Zhejiang can be significantly improved. Especially for the areal rainfall over 15 mm, it has obvious advantages compared to EC model. Although the forecasting accuracy of OCF model decreases gradually with the extension of forecast lead time, it has better effect than EC model in forecasting the areal rainfall over 6 mm. For different heavy precipitation processes in Zhejiang Province, OCF model has higher forecasting ability and better performance than EC model for the reservoir basins that are mainly affected by Meiyu (typhoon) during Meiyu period (typhoon period). The forecasting accuracy of OCF model improves with the approach of forecast lead time during both Meiyu and typhoon periods. However, owing to the influence of the forecasting accuracy of typhoon tracks, the latter fluctuates dramatically and has obvious advantages relative to EC model in most forecast lead time of 24-120 h. The above results could provide some necessary reference for the hydrometeorological service.
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Clc Number:
P456
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