ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 51 Issue 3 > 2025,51(3):257-268. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2024.122201 Prev Next
Climate Change Risks and the Early Warning in Megacities: A Shenzhen Perspective
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Abstract:
Under the global climate change, climate risks in cities have become a focal point of academic research and policy-making. This study analyzes the historical climate evolution, future trends, and risks in key domains by the case study on Shenzhen City. The findings indicate that Shenzhen has experienced rapid rise in temperature, significant interannual variability in precipitation, and a general decline in wind speed from 1953 to 2023. The extreme changes of major meteorological disasters such as high temperature, extreme precipitation and typhoons are obvious, and will be further intensified in the future. Thus, urban climate risks are projected to become more complex. Climate change is very likely to affect ecosystem, water resources, human health, energy load and infrastructure in Shenzhen, and that would be more negative than positive impact overall. Droughts and floods will significantly affect vegetation growth. The runoff in the western Pearl River Basin will decrease and exacerbate water resource management challenges. Heatwaves is in all likelihood to pose substantial health risks, particularly in the densely-populated western urban areas. Rising temperature and humidity levels can drive up residential electricity demands, and increase the pressure on the energy supply system. Meanwhile, the city’s drainage system will face much greater flood risks as extreme precipitation events test the resilience of urban infrastructure. Additionally, the cascading effects of extreme climate events across multiple systems may amplify socio-economic losses. To effectively mitigate extreme climate events and reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in the future, early warning systems are recognized as a critical adaptation measure. Shenzhen has developed a relatively advanced response framework, significantly enhancing meteorological monitoring, risk assessment, and emergency response capabilities. The climate risk assessment of Shenzhen and its response model are of great significance to the response to climate change in megacities in China. Therefore, strengthening the nationwide climate risk assessment, institutionalizing disaster surveys and hazard identification, and improving cross-sectoral collaboration in early warning systems are recommended to comprehensively enhance the climate resilience of cities.
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Clc Number:
P463，P467
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