ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Study on the Relationship Between the Graupel Particles
- Article
- Figures
- Metrics
- Preview PDF
- Reference
- Related
- Cited by
- Materials
Abstract:
Paper aims to study the temporal patterns of graupel layer thickness in convective storms before the onset of lightning. Paper based on the dual-polarization radar particle classification products and ground lightning location data from Fuzhou, Xiamen, and Longyan from April 2022 to June 2024. A total of 54 convective samples, including those with ground lightning initiation and those without, were selected.The results show that the graupel layer thickness of convective storms with ground flashes reaches at least 2.26 km at the onset of the first ground flash, while 95% of the samples without ground flashes have a graupel layer thickness less than 2.2 km throughout their lifecycles. Considering both the lead time and accuracy of ground flash onset forecasts, it is proposed to use a graupel layer thickness greater than 2 km as a forecast indicator for ground flash onset in Fujian Province. The forecast potential was evaluated, resulting in a sample TS score of 0.864 and an average lead time of 28.13 minutes. As an example, four convective storms on June 14, 2022, were used to apply and analyze the aforementioned forecast indicator. The results showed that the proposed forecast indicator accurately predicted whether lightning would occur in the four convective storms, with a lead time of 6 minutes for lightning onset forecasts.
Keywords:
Project Supported:
Clc Number:
Mobile website
