ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Technological Advances in National-Level Intelligent Digital Weather Forecasting Operational Systems
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Abstract:
Intelligent digital weather forecasting is a key means to support meteorological service. Countries around the world are actively developing new-generation seamless forecasting technology systems and promoting the application of artificial intelligence in the meteorological field. China has established a relatively complete intelligent digital weather forecasting operation system, achieving seamless forecasting for the near-surface and three-dimensional meteorological elements with a resolution of 1-km across the country and 5-km globally, covering a time range of 0-30 days. By developing adaptable technologies through the strategy of implementing different strategies at different time scales and integrating multi-source forecast, remarkable results have been achieved. A unified, standardized, and modularly expandable intelligent digital general technology framework has been constructed, constructing more than 30 types of algorithms and supporting "low-code" deployment, which plays an important role in major event support and extreme weather forecasting. The in-depth application of artificial intelligence technology has significantly improved forecasting performance in short-term and short-to-medium-term precipitation forecasting, severe convective weather forecasting, and disastrous gale forecasting by leveraging deep learning models. Progress has also been made in refined downscaling technology. At the same time, the data fusion and integration technology has continued to develop, and the intelligent integration of objective and subjective forecasting has developed to enhance the ability to forecast disastrous weather. China"s intelligent digital forecasting has improved the accuracy by 10% - 31% compared with the EC_IFS and CMA models and is widely applied in many fields. However, it still faces challenges. In the future, breakthroughs will be made in technologies related to the forecasting of disastrous and transitional weather, low-altitude hundreds-meter-resolution refined downscaling forecasting, industry-specific weather and risk forecasting, and the integrated platform with the meteorological "intelligent brain" as the core.
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