ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Evaluation of Heavy Precipitation Forecasting Performance of Numerical Weather Models under Different Circulation Patterns in the Yangtze River Delta Region
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Abstract:
This study classified the weather situations of heavy precipitation events in the Yangtze River Delta region from September 2022 to September 2024 and evaluated the forecast performance of the numerical models CMA-MESO, CMA-GFS, CMA-TYM, CMA-SH9, and ECMWF under four main weather patterns. The research results show that: 1) In the 24-hour precipitation forecasts, light rain tends to have a high false alarm rate, while heavy rain and above are difficult to accurately predict. In the 3-hour forecasts, the CMA-MESO model performs best for light precipitation. However, under cold shear and low vortex shear patterns, heavy precipitation becomes harder to capture, and the forecast performance weakens.2) In terms of the evaluation of temporal characteristics, under each weather pattern, the models have the highest accuracy in forecasting the start time of precipitation, followed by the end time, and the accuracy in forecasting the peak time is relatively low. 3) In terms of spatial feature evaluation, in the north-south direction, most models exhibit a northern systematic error in the low vortex shear and subtropical high combined with low trough types, while the errors are generally southern in the typhoon body and peripheral weather types. In the east-west direction, models generally exhibit an eastern bias in the typhoon body and peripheral weather types, while in other weather types, most models show a western systematic error.
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