ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Optimization and application of model surface wind speed diagnosis and prediction scheme
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Abstract:
The surface wind speed prediction is the diagnostic value at the height of 10 meters above the terrain of the numerical model, so the accuracy of the terrain has a great influence on the wind speed prediction performance. Therefore, SRTM data with high resolution is used to construct high-precision terrain, based on the high-precision terrain data, the wind speed prediction scheme is optimized. The numerical simulation test verify the 24-hour wind speed forecast results using more than 10,000 hourly-resolution automatic weather station observations on November 20 and July 20, 2023, the test results shows the mean deviation of wind speed forecast is reduced by 10.0% and 10.9% after using the optimized scheme based on high-precision terrain data, and the root mean square error of forecast is reduced too. The results of two months of continuous experiments show that the average deviation of the 24-hour wind speed forecast can be reduced by 50.0% and 50.6% with the optimized scheme for July and November 2023. It is shown that the optimized wind speed prediction and diagnosis scheme can produce obvious positive effect.
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