ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Research on the mixed lateral boundary perturbation method for high-resolution regional ensemble prediction
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Abstract:
Due to the limitations of the limited area, lateral boundary perturbations are one of the primary perturbation methods for regional ensemble prediction. However, it remains unclear how to construct lateral boundary perturbations for the high-resolution regional ensemble prediction system of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to improve forecast skill. This paper develops a mixed lateral boundary perturbation method using the perturbation field of the CMA global ensemble prediction and lateral boundary field of the regional deterministic model, and adjusts the perturbation magnitude through dynamic perturbation coefficients. The results showed that the absence of lateral boundary perturbations suppresses the growth of perturbation energy at later forecast ranges, leading to insufficient ensemble spreads. The mixed lateral boundary perturbation scheme can enhance the perturbation energy spectra at meso-α and large scales, as well as improve the spread-skill relationships and probabilistic forecast skills for isobaric element and precipitation. Compared to the mixed lateral boundary perturbation scheme, the dynamic mixed lateral boundary perturbation scheme can enhance the spectral energy above 100 km, improve the spread-skill relationships, as well as the probabilistic forecast skills for low-level variables and precipitation beyond 24 hours, exhibiting good potential for operational application.
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