ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Review and Outlook on Challenges in Major Events’ Meteorological Service
- Article
- Figures
- Metrics
- Preview PDF
- Reference
- Related
- Cited by
- Materials
Abstract:
This paper reviews the challenges in forecast services for major events in China over the past two decades. The main conclusions include: In conventional "fixed-time and fixed-location" weather element forecasting scenarios, the forecast challenges primarily focus on convection generation and dissipation or the occurrence of weak precipitation. Over short-term periods (12h or longer), the weather situation forecast provided by numerical models remains an important basis for decision-making, and the support from high-resolution numerical model products is indispensable. whereas in short-time or nowcasting, observational data and the comprehensive analytical capabilities of the forecasting team are more critical; In special "fixed-time and fixed-location" forecasting scenarios involving clouds, local winds, and local visibility, due to inadequate observational coverage, limited forecast capabilities of numerical models, and the lack of targeted objective forecasting methods at this stage, the forecast experience of the forecasting team, combined with observations and weather situation analysis, is crucial for successful service, especially in overseas on-site service support, regardless of whether it is short-time or nowcasting; With increased observational system coverage, improved accurate forecasting capabilities of numerical models, and the development of targeted objective forecasting methods including AI, special element forecasting scenarios will gradually transition into conventional element forecasting scenarios, and the leading role of the forecasting team will also gradually shift to short-time or nowcasting . To meet the meteorological support needs for various major events in the future, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of a three-dimensional full-element observation system, enhance the accurate forecasting capabilities of numerical models, promote the development of targeted objective forecasting technologies, and build a forecasting team with continuous self-learning, high generalization abilities, and strong communication skills.
Keywords:
Project Supported:
Clc Number:
Mobile website
