ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Comparative evaluation of CMA-CPE and CMA-REPSModel Precipitation Forecasts over China during 2023 Flood Season
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Abstract:
Based on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (CMA-CPEPS) and regional ensemble prediction system (CMA-REPS), the precipitation forecasting performance during the 2023 flood season (from 15 June to 28 August) in China, and a case analysis of July 2023 severe torrential rain in North China was objectively and comprehensively evaluated. The results indicate that CMA-REPS has an issue with systematically overestimating precipitation forecasts, CMA-CPEPS has significantly improved this problem. Compared to CMA-REPS, CMA-CPEPS shows significantly superiority in predictive capacity for weather changes and its temporal changes, with better probability forecasting and resolution ability of precipitation. Both CMA-CPEPS and CMA-REPS exhibit low spread values, while spread/RMSE value and the spatial correlation between spread and RMSE of CMA-CPEPS and CMA-REPS are equivalent. In the July 2023 severe torrential rain in North China, CMA-CPEPS has better ability to capture precipitation details compared to CMA-REPS. CMA-CPEPS outperforms in forecasting precipitation intensity, the evolution trend of precipitation intensity, and spatio-temporal resolution of heavy precipitation, especially in short-duration heavy precipitation events. Overall, CMA-CPEPS represents a significantly enhancement over CMA-REPS in precipitation forecasting for the 2023 flood season in China.
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