ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 50 Issue 7 > 2024,50(7):835-846. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.082101 Prev Next
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasting Method Based on Double Test Stepwise Regression
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Abstract:
Based on CMA besttrack and ECMWF fine grid data, 16 environmental variables during TC genesis are calculated and 7 prediction factors with significance are selected. The stepwise regression algorithm based on double test was used in establishing the TC genesis forecasting equation. The independent sample test results show that the hit rate of the wind speed predicted by the regression method is higher than that of the wind speed and pressure predicted by the numerical model. In 2022, the stepwise regression algorithm based on double test was trialed in the TC genesis forecasting operation. The test results of generating forecast for Typhoon Chaba showed that the regression method has a good performance, and it can provide a reference for forecasters to judge whether and when the typhoon is generated.
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