ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 50 Issue 5 > 2024,50(5):630-641. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2024.031404 Prev Next
Verification on Typhoon Forecasts over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2022
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Abstract:
Operational positioning and intensity estimation errors, as well as track and intensity forecast errors of typhoons over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2022 are evaluated according to the “Regulations on Typhoon Operations and Services”. The results show that in 2022, the positioning errors made by the official typhoon forecasting agencies displayed a negative correlation with the typhoon intensity grades. The mean error of position estimation made by the National Meteorological Centre (NMC), China Meteorological Administration （CMA）, were the smallest at each typhoon intensity grade. In 2022, the mean error of position estimation (15.4 km) made by NMC was 21.8% lower than 19.7 km in 2021, and the mean absolute error of intensity estimation (1.3 m·s-1) made by NMC was slightly smaller than the value (1.4 m·s-1) in 2021. Relative to 2021, the mean errors of track forecast by subjective and objective forecasts in 2022 were generally reduced, but the mean absolute errors of intensity forecasts were generally increased. Track forecast skill scores by SSTC, CMA-TRAMS, and ECMWF-IFS were relatively high. Intensity forecast systematic biases by NCEP-GFS, JMA-GSM, CMA-TRAMS, and CMA-TYM were insignificant, while forecast skill scores by NCEP-GFS, HWRF, and CMA-TRAMS were relatively high.
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