ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 50 Issue 5 > 2024,50(5):521-531. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2024.031401 Prev Next
Forecasting System for Short-Term Multi-Category Convective Phenomena Combining Physical Understanding and Fuzzy Logic Part Ⅰ: System Construction
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Abstract:
Accurate and objective forecasts of thunderstorm, short-time severe rainfall, thunderstorm gale and hail are meaningful for extending the validation of warnings and taking targeted preventive measures. This paper introduces the framework and implementation ways of the objective forecasting system combining physical understanding and fuzzy logic artificial intelligence. This system, developed by the National Meteorological Centre (NMC), can provide short-term probability forecasts of thunderstorm, short-time severe rainfall, thunderstorm gale, and hail. The key predictors used for the four different convective weather phenomena, the methods for obtaining the membership functions, and the weighting sets of predictors are discussed. The property for the wide applicability of the combination method of physical understanding and fuzzy logic artificial intelligence is further investigated. It is concluded that the combination of the two can cover and reveal the key characteristics of the ever-changing environmental features favorable for a specific convective weather phenomenon.
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