ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
Forecasting System for Short-Term Multi-Category Convective Phenomena Combining Physical Understanding and Fuzzy Logic Part Ⅰ: System Construction
CSTR:
Author:
Affiliation:

National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081;Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Meteorological Observatory of Tibet Autonomous Region, Lhasa 850000

Clc Number:

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
  • |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    Accurate and objective forecasts of thunderstorm, short-time severe rainfall, thunderstorm gale and hail are meaningful for extending the validation of warnings and taking targeted preventive measures. This paper introduces the framework and implementation ways of the objective forecasting system combining physical understanding and fuzzy logic artificial intelligence. This system, developed by the National Meteorological Centre (NMC), can provide short-term probability forecasts of thunderstorm, short-time severe rainfall, thunderstorm gale, and hail. The key predictors used for the four different convective weather phenomena, the methods for obtaining the membership functions, and the weighting sets of predictors are discussed. The property for the wide applicability of the combination method of physical understanding and fuzzy logic artificial intelligence is further investigated. It is concluded that the combination of the two can cover and reveal the key characteristics of the ever-changing environmental features favorable for a specific convective weather phenomenon.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation
Related Videos

Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:December 20,2023
  • Revised:March 14,2024
  • Adopted:
  • Online: May 31,2024
  • Published:
Article QR Code

WeChat

Mobile website