ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
Causes and predictability of the high-impact large-scale cryogenic freezing rain and snow weather in February 2024 in East and Central China
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    Abstract:

    The causes and predictability of the high-impact large-scale cryogenic freezing rain and snow weather (CFRSW) in east and central China in February 2024 were investigated using the daily temperature and precipitation data from 2,374 stations, the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric circulation reanalysis data and the HadISST data. The results show that: (1) Two CFRSW processes occurred in China in early and late February 2024, and the overlap of the regions was high. The east and central China suffered the most serious freezing rain and snow disaster. (2) The subtropical and mid-high latitude circulation system configuration that influenced the two CFRSW processes were more consistent, the western north Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) was strong and westward. Siberian high, the South Branch trough and the western north Pacific anticyclone were strong in the same period, forming a strong synergistic effect. The enhancement of the Siberian high led to cold air southward, and the synchronization of the enhancement of South Branch trough and western north Pacific anticyclone to provide abundant water vapor conditions for the east and central China. (3) A moderate-intensity El Ni?o event occurred in the equatorial east-central Pacific from May 2023 to April 2024. In addition, the tropical Indian Ocean and the tropical North Atlantic were abnormally warm in winter. The abnormal SST of the three oceans jointly led to the continuous strength of the WNPSH. This is conducive to the periodic development and enhancement of the anticyclones in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, and provides abundant water vapor conditions for the two CFRSW processes in February. (4) The predictability of the sub-seasonal model for the two processes is about 1~2 weeks, and the prediction skill within 1 week is relatively high. When advanced by more than 2 weeks, the model is unable to accurately predict the anomalous characteristics of the Eurasian mid-high latitude circulation system, resulting in lower predictive ability for the two processes.

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History
  • Received:April 26,2024
  • Revised:September 27,2024
  • Adopted:October 15,2024
  • Online: October 15,2024
  • Published:

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