ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Performance Evaluation of BCC-CPSv3 sub-seasonal precipitation prediction in the flood season of the Yangtze River Basin
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Abstract:
Based on the prediction results of Beijing Climate Center-climate prediction system version 3-subseasonal to seasonal version 2 (BCC-CPSv3-S2Sv2), various evaluation and test methods are used to test the prediction effect of the model in the flood season of the Yangtze River Basin, and to evaluate the prediction skills of daily/ten-day precipitation in the flood season of the Yangtze River Basin. The model error characteristics are studied, and the available forecasting time-scale of model precipitation is analyzed. The results show that the model has systematically overestimated the precipitation in flood season in the Yangtze River Basin as a whole, and the prediction skill in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is higher than that in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, and the prediction effect in August is significantly better than that in June and July; the prediction skill of the model is improved with the approaching of the starting time. The effective prediction time of the model for the daily quantitative prediction of the flood season in the Yangtze River Basin is about ten days, and the qualitative prediction of the precipitation anomaly in the flood season is similar: the prediction skill of ten days in advance is the highest, and the prediction of twenty to thirty days in advance also has some reference value. In addition, the model"s prediction skill under the less rain scenario is better than that under the more rain scenario, but its prediction ability for extreme climate events is still relatively weak.
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