Taking the high temperature and summer drought areas of ratoon rice in the eastern part of Sichuan Basin as the study area, and based on the mechanism of the influence of meteorological conditions on the growth and development of ratoon rice during the axillary bud germination stage, this article explores the impact factors, pathways, and degrees of axillary bud germination with a structural equation model. Furthermore, combined with the membership function and analytic hierarchy process, a meteorological suitability model for axillary bud germination of ratoon rice is constructed, and the meteorological impact factors and changes in meteorological suitability of axillary bud germination stage of ratoon rice in the study area from 1981 to 2021 are analyzed. The results indicate that temperature, air humidity, and precipitation are key impact factors for axillary bud germination in the high temperature and summer drought areas of ratoon rice in eastern Sichuan Basin. The meteorological suitability model based on these factors can effectively evaluate the meteorological impact of axillary bud germination of ratoon rice. From 1981 〖JP2〗to 2021, the temperature suitability, air humidity suitability, and synthetical meteoro-〖JP〗logical suitability all showed a downward trend, while the precipitation suitability did not have a significant change trend. In general, the spatial distributions of temperature suitability, air humidity suitability, and synthetical meteorological suitability were characterized by “high in the west and low in the east”, while the precipitation suitability was distributed in the pattern of “high in the east and west, and low in the middle”. From 1981 to 2021, there was a significant upward trend in temperature 〖JP2〗and a downward trend in air humidity in the study area,〖JP〗 resulting in significant increases in the accumulated temperature causing harmful high temperatures (daily mean temperature ≥32℃) and the days of harmful low humidity (daily average relative humidity ≤65%). This is major cause for the overall downward trend in meteorological suitability of axillary bud germination stage of ratoon rice.