ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 50 Issue 2 > 2024,50(2):234-245. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.050803 Prev Next
Calculation Method for Wind Field in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea Area Based on Coastal Actual Condition and Effect Evaluation
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Abstract:
To deal with the lack of marine observation data and enhance the monitoring ability of strong wind event in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, a calculation method of wind speed in sea area under different atmospheric circulation patterns is developed, on the basis of multiple linear regression method and observation data from 74 coastal and island stations as well as 21 sea-based stations of buoy and ship stations from 2017 to 2020. The calculated results are tested by the observation data in 2021. The results show that the wind speed prediction models (CM model and HM model, respectively) established for all wind scales and winds stronger than scale 6 have higher reliability, and especially the HM model has higher accuracy for wind prediction. The probability of strong winds exceeds 60% for five out of the eight weather types. Among the five weather types with high frequency of gale, the calculation effect for the northwest high-southeast low type is the best, the calculation effects for winds at scales 6-7 of the west high-east low type, the southwest high-northeast low type and the northwest low-southeast high type are better, but the calculation effects for the three types of strong winds at scale 8 and above are slightly worse. In the calculation results of gale in different sea areas, the wind speed calculated for most sea areas of the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea is smaller than observation data, and the wind speed calculated for some stations in the southwest sea area of the Bohai Sea is larger than observation data. The minimum mean absolute error in the northern Yellow Sea is 0.95 m·s-1, and the mean absolute error in other sea areas is 1.32-1.70 m·s-1. The calculated wind speed can effectively supplement the marine wind observation in the case of discontinuous and unstable observation in the sea area. The calculating method is easy to be applied in operational work, and can be further optimized with increasing number of observation data in different sea areas. It also has a certain reference value in designating the layout of marine observation systems.
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