ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 49 Issue 12 > 2023,49(12):1542-1552. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.051501 Prev Next
Study of Approach in Identification and Modification of Gale Event Forecast
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Abstract:
Based on the wind speed observation data of Marine Booster Station in Rudong Wind Farm, this paper proposes a method of identifying gale event. Three identification schemes of gale event forecast are developed and compared through the determination of the crucial parameters. Then, based on the decision tree method and a single linear regression method, the correction methods for gale events are studied. The results show that the gale event forecast of equal cumulative frequency scheme is superior to other schemes, having the hit rate of 76.1% and the hit rate of matching duration of 87.6%. The duration of gale event forecast of eliminating deviation and equal cumulative frequency schemes are more in agreement with the observation data. Besides, the equal cumulative frequency scheme can cover the duration of every observation gale event, so it is good for proposing the beginning and end time of gale warning. The above-mentioned two correction methods can improve the forecast performance to a certain extent. However, the improvement done by the decision tree method is more obvious, for it can significantly reduce the MAE, RE, RMSE.
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