ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 49 Issue 10 > 2023,49(10):1254-1266. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.080302 Prev Next
Analysis on the Characteristics and Forecast Difficulties of the Typhoons over the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea in 2022
- Article
- Figures
- Metrics
- Preview PDF
- Reference
- Related
- Cited by
- Materials
Abstract:
Based on the operational real-time typhoon data of National Meteorological Centre and other sources of observations including the ERA-Interim 6 h reanalysis data from the European Centre for Me-dium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), we analyze and review the main characteristics of typhoon activities in the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea in 2022. It is found that in 2022, the characteristics of typhoon activity were obvious in stages and clusters with the genesis zones being northward and westward, and the number of typhoons landing in China was still relatively less, which is similar with the typhoon numbers since 2019. However, the typhoon intensities in 2022 were stronger than the average. The forecast error analysis shows that the track errors mainly came from the initial stage of typhoon generation, the combination of typhoon and westerlies, and the period of multiply typhoons or low pressure area activity. Further analysis of the forecast difficulties of the typhoons Chaba, Muifa and Hinnamnor reveals that the continental high and upper-level jet in the north of Chaba at the early stage of its generation was the key system leading to the long-time track adjustment of Chaba. The track errors of the Muifa after landfall were due to the deviation of the models’ forecasts of the steering flows. The track and intensity of Hinnamnor were complex, and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) made forecast deviations in the rate of its rapid intensifying and weakening, intensity fluctuations because of its unexpected changes in structure and size.
Keywords:
Project Supported:
Clc Number:
Mobile website
