ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Influence of Thermal Asymmetry on the Deflection of Landing Typhoon Track
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Abstract:
A statistical analysis of the characteristic of typhoon track deflection relative to the steering flow in East China is conducted with the CMA tropical cyclone best track dataset and the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data from 1950 to 2022. The results show that: Of 54 landfall typhoons, 85.2% of the typhoon tracks deviate to the left of the steering flow at the time of landing, and the underlying surface will produce an averaged deflection angle of about 6°～7° from the steering flow. The deflection angle between the typhoon tracks and the steering flow at the landing time has a good correspondence with the thermal asymmetry parameters. Generally, a cyclone with a nearly symmetric thermal structure at the time of landing corresponds to a smaller deflection angle, while the obvious thermal asymmetric structure will increase the possibility of a large deflection angle. The underlying surface is prone to triggering asymmetric convection on the left side of the cyclone near the landing, affecting the distribution of thermal structure and causing the typhoon tracks to deviate to the left of the steering flow. The development of convection on the left side of the cyclone can sometimes decrease the thermal asymmetry parameter at the time of landing. So, more attention should be paid to the evolution of thermal asymmetry near the landing instead of the asymmetry itself for more accurate prediction of typhoon track deflection.
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