ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 49 Issue 8 > 2023,49(8):1005-1019. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.051101 Prev Next
Verification on Typhoons Forecasts over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2021
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Abstract:
Based on the Tropical Cyclones Best Track Dataset for the Western North Pacific compiled by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the positioning errors and intensity estimation errors as well as the track, intensity and landfall forecast errors of the 22 named typhoons over Western North Pacific and South China Sea in 2021 are evaluated. The verification results show that the average positioning error of typhoons made by the National Meteorological Centre, CMA, in 2021 was 19.7 km, which was 13% less than that of 2020 (22.7 km). 〖JP2〗The average intensity estimation error was 1.4 m·s-1, which was slightly higher than that of 2020 (1.2 m·s-1). The average annual track forecast errors of the official typhoon forecast agencies, global models, and regional models at home and abroad have increased compared to the errors in 2020, and the average track forecast errors of subjective and objective forecasting methods failed to have a continuous decreasing trend in 2012-2021. The mean absolute errors of intensity forecasts of all forecasting methods have generally decreased to some extent from 2012 to 2017, but did not show a decreasing trend in 2018-2021. The subjective and objective forecasting methods generally performed well in forecasting the 24 h landfall points for the typhoons Koguma, InFa, Cempaka, Lionrock and Kompasu.
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