ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 49 Issue 7 > 2023,49(7):819-829. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.062001 Prev Next
Comparison and Forecast Deviation Analysis of Two Snow and Rain Events in Hubei Province in 2022
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Abstract:
Based on the upper-air, surface observation and ERA5 hourly reanalysis data, the circulation situation and environmental conditions of two snow and rain events in Hubei Province in 2022 are compared and analyzed, and the errors and causes of the two events in the prediction of precipitation type, snowfall and snow depth are discussed. The results show that the trough of the 27-29 January 2022 event was westward, the jet stream was relatively weak and the maintenance duration was short. The temperature in the middle and lower troposphere was high, dominated by warm advection. The ice crystal content was low, so the precipitation type was dominated by rainfall. The main errors of snowfall were due to the deviation of precipitation type forecast, the forecast of strong low-level jet stream by the model, which led to the total snowfall amount less than that of the forecast, and the insufficient forecast of snow melting mechanism led to snow depth lower than that of the forecast. In the 6-7 February 2022 event, the trough was easterly, the jet was relatively strong and maintained for a long time, the temperature in the middle and lower troposphere was lower, the ice crystal content was high, and the relative humidity in the lower layer was low, so the precipitation was mainly dominated by snowfall. The prediction of snowfall amount and precipitation type by the ECMWF model were close to obsevations, but the high boundary layer temperature prediction and insufficient snow melting ability prediction were the main reasons for the errors of snow depth change. Therefore， correction of model snowfall amount and snow depth should focus on ice crystal content, boundary layer temperature and snow melting capacity by model.
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P456，P458
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