ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 49 Issue 5 > 2023,49(5):624-632. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2022.101201 Prev Next
Correction of Wind Speed Forecast Deviations at Ground Stations Based on Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory
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Abstract:
Due to the influence of the terrain difference, the model wind speed prediction may deviate from the actual observation. Monin-Obukhov similarity theory shows that the vertical change of wind speed near the ground conforms to the logarithmic rate characteristics. Based on this similarity theory, the deviation revision scheme is constructed to revise the wind speed forecast from the model terrain to the actual terrain, and 〖JP2〗the atmospheric stability determination factor is introduced to the scheme. After analyzing more than 760 stations in North China in summer and winter, we have found that the average deviation of wind speed forecast within 12 h can be reduced by more than 20%, the 24 h decline can also reach more than 10%, and the root mean square error of wind speed within different forecast periods can also be reduced by 5%-8%. This indicates that the revised scheme has a very obvious positive effect on the wind speed prediction of the model.
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