ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 49 Issue 3 > 2023,49(3):365-378. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.012901 Prev Next
Overview of Climate Prediction for the Summer 2022 in China and Its Precursors
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Abstract:
The main characteristics of climate in summer 2022 were accurately predicted by National Climate Centre (NCC), including “the overall climate condition is unfavorable, with regional and phased floods and droughts, significantly uneven spatial distribution of rainfall, and the main anomalous-rainfall belt located in northern China”. The position of main anomalous-rainfall belt and spatial distribution of floods and droughts in China was well predicted in advance at the end of March 2022. The prediction of seasonal progress of East Asian summer monsoon and rainy season was also consistent with observations. For example, the onset date of South China Sea summer monsoon was in the 3rd pentad of May, earlier and less Meiyu occurred over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the rainy season of North China started earlier than the climatology with above-normal precipitation, etc. The predicted less-generated tropical cyclones over western North Pacific and high probability of northward-moving typhoons in the summer were basically in line with the observations. The hot summer in 2022 and the spatial pattern of temperature anomalies in China were well captured. The prediction of “the temperature in most part of central and eastern China and Xinjiang is above normal, with more high temperature days and heat waves” was in good agreement with the observations. The main deficiency of the prediction was the underestimation of the spatial coverage and extremity of the record-breaking heat wave and drought in the Middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Sichuan and Chongqing regions. The prediction of flood season in 2022 was mainly based on the impact of multiyear La Ni〖AKn~D〗a event and the tropical Indian Ocean dipole mode on the summer monsoon circulation over East Asia. The intensity of western Pacific subtropical high was abnormally strong with northward displacement of the ridge line. With the intensified East Asian summer monsoon, and active northeast cold vortex in early summer, the above factors synergistically contributed to the formation of main anomalous-rainfall belt in Northeast China, North China, and eastern part of Northwest China.
Keywords:
climate prediction, precursor, East Asian summer monsoon, rain belt, multiyear La Ni〖AKn~D〗a
Clc Number:
P461
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