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Archive > Volume 49 Issue 3 > 2023,49(3):257-266. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.022301 Prev Next

The Future Projections of Extreme Weather, Climate and Water Events and Strategic Responses

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    Abstract:
    Climate change induced by human activities has already been affecting many weather, climate and water extremes in every region across the globe. Every additional increment of global warming will lead to larger changes in extreme events. If there is no action on global carbon neutralization, further increases in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes and decreases in the intensity and frequency of cold extremes will occur throughout the 21st century around the world. And the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation as well as agricultural and ecological drought in some regions will also undergo a significant increase. Today’s children and future generations are more vulnerable to the risk of future climate change and extremes. They are projected to experience nearly four-fold increase in extreme weather, climate and water events by the end of this century even at 1.5℃ of warming relative to pre-industrial levels. In view of the increasingly severe risk of climate change and extreme events, it is urgent to actively pursue the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and strong reductions in the emissions of methane and other greenhouse gases. At the same time, it is urgent to formulate policies and measures related to disaster prevention and mitigation, and promote the construction of extreme event monitoring and early warning system and resilience. Additionally, it cannot be neglected to enhance the prevention of compound extreme events and small probability-high impact events to ensure the well-being and sustainable development of future generations.

    Keywords:
    global warming, weather and climate extremes, extreme hydroclimatic event, disaster prevention and mitigation, future projection， World Meteorological Day

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