ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 48 Issue 4 > 2022,48(4):516-525. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2022.022101 Prev Next
Verification on Forecasts of Typhoons over Western North Pacific and South China Sea in 2020
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Abstract:
Operational positioning and intensity estimation errors, track, intensity and landfall point forecast errors of 23 named typhoons over Western North Pacific and South China Sea in 2020 are evaluated in this paper. The verification results show that the total average positioning and intensity estimation errors of National Meteorological Centre (NMC), CMA, were 22.7 km and 1.3 m·s-1, respectively. Compared to the estimation in 2019, the value of positioning error was slightly larger than in 2019, but the intensity estimation error was a little bit smaller than in 2019. Since 2013, the overall track forecast performance within 72 h has not shown substantive improvement for both subjective and objective forecast methods. Moreover by 2020, the mean values of extreme large track error cases were still up to 2.3-3.0 times compared with their annual mean track errors, but the intensity forecast performance of NMC/CMA within 72 h 〖JP2〗was better than that of the other official typhoon〖JP〗 forecast agencies. In 2020, the landfall point of tropical Storm Nuri at Hailing Island, Yangjiang City, Guangdong Province was successfully predicted by all the official typhoon forecast agencies and some models also accurately forecasted in 24 h advance the Severe Typhoon Hagupit and Severe Tropical Storm Nangka’s landfall points in Yueqing City, Zhejiang Province and Qionghai City, Hainan Province, respectively.
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