ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 48 Issue 4 > 2022,48(4):504-515. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.10000526.2021.112401 Prev Next
The Analysis of Characteristics and Forecast Difficulties of TCs in Western North Pacific in 2020
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Abstract:
The characteristics of TCs on Western North Pacific in 2020 are analyzed by using the besttrack data, CMA operational forecasting data, ECMWF ERAInterim reanalysis products and NCEP RTG_SST data. Results show that the number of typhoons and landing typhoons were less and the strength were weak in 2020. The generating locations were inclined more westward. The stage and group characteristics of typhoon activity were prominent, and the features of offshore rapid intensification (RI) were obvious. Estimations of track errors in 2020 show that there were some decreases compared to those of 2019, with the error values of 70, 117, 169, 222 and 276 km for the forecasts with 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 h lead time, respectively. The strength errors were 3.9, 5.1, 5.5, 6.2 and 6.3 m·s-1 for the forecasts with 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 h lead time, respectively and decreased a little compared to the errors of 2019. The 24 h errors were less than 4.0 m·s-1 for 4 consecutive years. In addition, the forecast difficulties in 2020 lie in that, first, the strength forecast of RI TCs offshore, and second, the strength forecast of typhoons going northward after landing.
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