ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts of Wind over East China by Using Augmented Complex Extended Kalman Filter
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Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044;Weather Online Institute of Meteorological Applications, Jiangsu, Wuxi 214000;Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073;Yunnan Meteorological Observatory, Kunming 650034

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    Abstract:

    Based on EC, GFS, CMA-MESO and CMA-GFS, the 0-72 h ensemble forecasts of daily surface and high-altitude zonal wind and meridional wind from January to April 2020 from the four models for East China and surrounding areas (20°-40°N,110°-130°E) are evaluated with the augmented complex extended Kalman filter (ACEKF) method. The results show that the ACEKF method outperforms the bias-removed ensemble mean, super-ensemble forecast and single-mode forecasts, and can further reduce the wind speed forecast errors. ACEKF can improve the upper-air wind speed forecasts better than those at ground level. In complex terrain areas the improved wind speed forecast is much better. These results are also reflected in the root-mean-square error and anomaly correlation coefficient for all forecast times.

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History
  • Received:January 21,2021
  • Revised:January 19,2022
  • Adopted:
  • Online: April 29,2022
  • Published:

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