ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 48 Issue 3 > 2022,48(3):334-344. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2021.110901 Prev Next
Application of Prediction Equation to Gust Forecasting for Chinese Offshore Areas
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Abstract:
Gust has a significant impact on shipping and offshore production, but there are fewer objective gust forecast products and the time resolution is at a low level for the offshore areas of China. In order to enrich the objective forecast and improve the accuracy of sea gust forecasts, this paper uses the multiple regression method to establish the hourly gust forecast equations for Chinese offshore based on the 2016-2019 observation data and ERA5 reanalysis data, and also uses the 2020 ECMWF deterministic model data for forecasting experiments. Comparing the gust forecast products in the ECMWF deterministic model and gust factor method forecast products in 2020, we find that the gust forecast equation based on the multiple regression method considers the average wind speed term, the near-surface layer turbulence term and the convection term, and it has clear physical and statistical significance and a better fitting effect on gust. In the forecasting of scale 8-9 gust, the average error and the average absolute error of the multiple regression method forecast are lower than the gust forecast by the ECMWF deterministic model, so the forecast effect is better than that of the ECMWF deterministic model in the process of cold air gale weather. At the same time, this method can also reflect the gust situation under the influence of typhoon, and could provide a reference for gust forecast over Chinese offshore areas.
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