ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 47 Issue 10 > 2021,47(10):1266-1276. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2021.10.009 Prev Next
Verification on Forecasts of Typhoons over Western North Pacific and South China Sea in 2019
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Abstract:
Operational positioning and intensity estimation, track, intensity and landfall point forecast errors of the typhoons over Western North Pacific and South China Sea in 2019 are evaluated. The results show that the overall errors of typhoon mean positioning and intensity estimation in 2019 were a little larger than in 2018, being 24.7 km and 2.5 m·s-1, respectively. Since 2013, the overall track forecast performance within 72 h did not show substantive improvement for both subjective and objective forecast methods. In 2019, the mean values of extreme error were up to 2.1-3.9 times as much as their annual mean track errors. The intensity forecast performance of CMA within 3 days is better than that of the other official typhoon forecast agencies. The landfall points of Typhoon Lekima at Wenling, Zhejiang Province and Qingdao, Shandong Province and the landfall points of Typhoon Bailu at Pingdong, Taiwan Province and Dongshan, Fujian Province were successfully predicted by all the official typhoon forecast agencies in 2019.
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Clc Number:
P456
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