ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 47 Issue 8 > 2021,47(8):1009-1020. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2021.08.008 Prev Next
Analysis on the Characteristics of Typhoon Activity and Forecasting Difficulties in Western North Pacific in 2019
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Abstract:
A total of 29 typhoons were generated over western North Pacific and South China Sea in 2019, 2 more than the multiyear average of 27 in the same period, of which 6 typhoons landed in China, 1 less than the normal average of 7 in the same period. The overall strength of the landfall 〖JP2〗typhoon was weak rela〖JP〗tively, but the landfall intensity of “Lekima” was strong (52 m·s-1)， reaching the scale of super typhoon. Autumn typhoons were obviously more, especially, there were 6 typhoons in November, the most typhoons in November since 1949. Compared with the average error of the past 5 years (2014-2018), the typhoon track forecast error by the National Meteorological Centre in 2019, was increased in the 24-72 h forecast, while the forecast error of 96-120 h was greatly reduced. Compared with JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) and the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center), CMA is in the leading position in the prediction level of 24 h and 96-120 h, the prediction error of 48-72 h is equivalent to the EC deterministic model, slightly higher than that of JMA, but lower than that of the JTWC.
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