ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 46 Issue 11 > 2020,46(11):1508-1519. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2020.11.011 Prev Next
Evaluation on the Performance of BCC SecondGeneration Climate System Model for East Asian Summer Climate Prediction
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Abstract:
Based on circulation and precipitation hindcast and realtime forecast data of BCC SecondGeneration Climate System Model developed by National Climate Centre, the evaluation of the ability of the model for East Asian summer climate prediction is carried by using the synchronized and lag correlation, partial correlation and combined EOF decomposition analysis. The results show that the main spatial distribution of high and lowlevel circulation and precipitation climatical fields can be well predicted, particularly the location of the heavy rainfall center and members of the monsoon system, but with some systematic biases. The model has poor performance in predicting the precipitation interannual variability in East Asia, especially in China, but has decent prediction ability for the interannual variability of 500 hPa geopotential height, and its skill improves with the approaching to the starting month. In addition, the model can predict the temporal and spatial distribution of the main modes of interannual variations of the East Asian climate with high skills. It can also catch the main characteristics of the response of East Asian climate variability to the developing El Ni〖AKn~D〗o and decaying El Ni〖AKn~D〗o period. This skill mainly comes from the accurate grasp of the east patern El Ni〖AKn~D〗o events. Overall, the BCC SecondGeneration Climate System Model can predict the East Asian summer climate with decent skill, which can benefit the shortterm climate prediction.
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