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Archive > Volume 46 Issue 10 > 2020,46(10):1320-1329. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2020.10.006 Prev Next

Application of Sea Fog Objective Prediction Method in Fine Gridded Weather Forecasting

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    Abstract:
    In order to promote the construction of fine gridded forecasting of marine meteorology, National Meteorological Centre began to develop the objective forecasting method of sea fog in 2013. The objective forecasting method of sea fog based on ingredientsbased methodology has been continuously improved. The method of sea fog forecasting based on decision tree method and the product of sea fog forecast index forecasting have been developed. The main sea fog processes in the northern part of China offshore sea can be well forecasted based on objective methods. The average 24 h fog occurrence TS score of objective method in the northern part of China offshore sea in 2018 is about 0.25. Sea fog prediction method based on ingredientsbased methodology was applied into the generation rules of weather phenomena background fields, and the objective method results have provided strong support for subjective forecasting. The 24 h dense fog TS scores of subjective sea fog prediction results in 2018 based on fine gridded prediction get close to 0.25 in the central and southern Yellow Sea, and 0.15 in the Beibu Gulf.

    Keywords:
    gridded weather forecasting, sea fog forecasting, ingredients-based methodology, sea fog forecast index, decision tree

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